Another Quiet Day

Why All the Analysis of the AP-AOL Poll is Wrong

There are a lot of hasty generalisations being made about the recent AP-AOL Poll on online video usage.

For example: According to the poll only 7 per cent of users asked have paid for online video and almost three quarters prefer advertising-supported models.

The conclusion that Ars Technica comes to is that people don't want to pay for online video.

That's not exactly what the poll says. It only gives us information about past actions and a preference for future actions. It is impossible to draw any reliable conclusions as to whether people will or will not spend money on online video in the future based on this poll.

Polls and their brethren, statistics, are symptomatic of the dark pit of modern day feudalism, where the management aristocracy rule according to the cryptic messages that the consumer research priesthood passes down from the oracle.

The correct thing to do would be instead to lay out questions of your own.

Instead of asking "how many are willing to pay?" you ask "how much are they willing to pay?" and "is that enough?"

Then disregard the answer because it depends highly on context.

There is, however, one thing you can depend on.

People are more willing to part with their money if they already feel a part of something; a community or a fan-base.

We find things we are a part of more valuable than those that exclude us or set themselves above us.

That is the key to the future of video storytelling, film-making, music and the art of storytelling in general.

That is why the future belongs to those projects that build community tools into their media efforts.

And to the creators who bring their audience in as a part of the creative process.

Baldur Bjarnason – 6/9/06